Statistics

Sneak peek at the annual trade statistic release

January 22nd, 2007

With only a few weeks remaining until the release of the 2006 annual trade statistics, some predictions, based on WorldCity analysis of the most recent U.S. Census data:

Nine of the United States Customs districts will exceed $100 billion in annual trade, a record, when San Francisco joins the list for the first time. In 2003, the total was four. Only No. 10 Buffalo will not make it for 2006.

Canada will surpass $500 billion one half trillion dollars of trade with the United States in 2006, a record. It will likely surpass $300 billion in imports into the United States, a first.

As predicted earlier this year, China passed Mexico and will end 2006 as the nation’s second-largest trade partner behind Canada. The only other change in the top 10 will occur if France passes Taiwan.

Five and possibly six nations will exceed $100 billion in trade with the United States Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, Germany and possibly the United Kingdom.

The top 10 nations in total trade include two from North America, five from Asia and three from Europe. The top 10 for exports include the same two from North America Canada and Mexico but include five from Europe and three from Asia. The top 10 for imports adds a South American nation oil-producing Venezuela to the list, joining the two NAFTA nations, four Asian nations and three European nations.

Trade with 48 of the nation’s top trade partners will have increased in 2006 and possibly 49. Italy’s trade will have declined; it is possible Argentina will show a slight decrease as well.

China will almost certainly become the nation’s leading importer in 2007, surpassing Canada. Although the United States has its third-largest deficit with Canada, U.S. exports to Canada are strong enough that the NAFTA partner will easily remain the nation’s No. 1 partner for the foreseeable future.

Houston will again move up a notch in the rankings, thanks to the continuing buoyancy of the oil market, and will surpass Laredo, Texas, to become the No. 4-ranked Customs district in the nation. Los Angeles, New York and Detroit will remain in the top three slots. It appears Buffalo will hold on to its No. 10 ranking, narrowly keeping ahead of the Savannah Customs district, which includes Atlanta’s Hartsfield Jackson International Airport and the seaport at Brunswick, Ga.

The fastest-growing Customs district among the top 25, as a percentage, is Tampa/Jacksonville, at 31 percent. With Miami, the only other Customs district in the state, the two surpassed $100 billion in trade through the first 11 months of the year, a first for the state. In 2003, the state had $66 billion in trade through November.

Four other fast-growing Customs districts are Houston, Seattle, Dallas and Philadelphia, all four growing at above 19 percent, or more than 50 percent faster than the national average.

The United States will surpass $1 trillion in exports for 2006, the first time ever. Two Customs districts, Detroit and New York, will exceed $100 billion in exports, the latter for the first time. Detroit only surpassed $100 billion for the first time in 2005.

Imports will likely settle in the range of $1.8 trillion, creating the largest U.S. trade deficit in history. Five Customs districts will exceed $100 billion in imports, two for the first time. Los Angeles leads the way, followed by New York, Detroit, New Orleans and Houston. The latter two are the ones cracking the ranks for the first time.

As a percentage, exports are rising faster than imports. But in dollar terms, the deficit keeps growing. This year, it is likely to be in the neighborhood of $775 billion, up from less than $500 billion in 2003. China accounts for roughly a quarter of the total. Los Angeles, which is dominated by Asian trade, has the nation’s largest deficit and the only one greater than $100 billion.

Seattle will have the nation’s largest and one of its few trade surpluses, approaching $10 billion, after a good year for Boeing. Miami, the only Customs district with a continuous trade surplus for more than a decade, will have the second largest. Pembina, North Dakota, will have a surplus for the third straight year. Seattle had a deficit in 2005.

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Colombia FTA in headlines as Clinton aide steps aside (04/07/2008)

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U.S. trade breaks $3 trillion mark; first deficit decline in 15 years (02/15/2008)

Annual U.S. trade with a record 44 nations will exceed $10 billion (01/19/2008)

Annual trade growth forecast to slow but numerous records still will fall (01/17/2008)

U.S. exports to Putin's Russia growing far faster than national average (12/23/2007)

Baltimore, N.Y. among big gainers in exports (12/21/2007)

Aircraft, corn, gold exports growing rapidly (12/18/2007)

Slumping dollar means surging exports (11/13/2007)

With oil above $90 per barrel, crude and China play biggest role in deficit since 1992 (10/30/2007)

U.S. trade passes $2 trillion through August, a record (10/25/2007)

Exports, in GOP debate spotlight, continue brisk, record growth (10/09/2007)

U.S.-Burma trade vaporized in 2003 (09/30/2007)

Algeria, Vietnam among fastest-growing U.S. trade partners over five-year period (09/25/2007)

U.S. trade growth slowest in years (08/15/2007)

2nd U.S. TradeNumbers released (08/12/2007)

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South Korea car imports up 1,000% since 1992, but down last two years (04/10/2007)

It's a fact: Algeria, Angola, Chile, UAE, Austria are fastest-growing (04/10/2007)

U.S takes precedent-setting action against China in coated-paper case (04/02/2007)

Media weighs in on South Korea-U.S. free trade agreement (04/02/2007)

South Korea takes big step toward $100 Billion Club (04/02/2007)

U.S. exports advance broadly, from airplanes to corn to tractors to gold (03/19/2007)

Annual Statistics: A quick review of the Top 10 U.S. trade partners (02/24/2007)

U.S. trade, exports, imports, deficit set new annual records (02/15/2007)

Annual statistics: Dallas among nation's fastest-growing districts (02/14/2007)

Seattle registers largest, and one of few, surpluses (02/14/2007)

DC is nation's fastest-growing Customs district for 2006 (02/14/2007)

Philadelphia falls just shy of $70 billion on rapid growth (02/13/2007)

Sneak peek at the annual trade statistic release (01/22/2007)

U.S. has trade surplus with 115 nations, deficit with 116 (11/03/2006)

U.S. trade growth at 14 percent through August (10/16/2006)

Exports to Afghanistan are zooming; led by aircraft, motor vehicles (10/02/2006)

Romania, Bulgaria seek EU status, both rank in Top 100 in U.S. trade (09/28/2006)

Trade with Muslim world growing faster than average (09/25/2006)

Annual Report: No. 17 Saudi Arabia - Quenching the oil thirst (09/15/2006)

New Orleans rebounding, one year after Katrina (08/27/2006)

Six-month report: U.S. trade increases 13 percent, with fast growth from red-hot Chile (08/24/2006)

Annual Report: No. 24 Switzerland - Swiss trade keeping time (07/26/2006)

Annual Report: No. 25 Australia- U.S. posts $8.4 billion surplus (07/26/2006)

Annual Report: No. 23 Hong Kong - U.S. expands trade surplus (07/25/2006)

Annual Report: No. 21 Israel - Glittering give-and-take (07/23/2006)

Annual Report: No. 20 India - Rising player on trade scene (07/22/2006)

Annual Report: No. 19 Thailand - Gains seen in tech products (07/21/2006)

Annual Report: No. 16 Singapore - U.S. sees growth in surplus (07/20/2006)